{"id":383,"date":"2014-11-19T09:08:11","date_gmt":"2014-11-19T14:08:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=383"},"modified":"2014-12-05T16:54:29","modified_gmt":"2014-12-05T21:54:29","slug":"october-housing-starts-and-permits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=383","title":{"rendered":"October Housing Starts and Permits"},"content":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Starts: -2.8%; 1-Family: +4.2%; Multi-Family: -15.4%; Permits: +4.8%<\/p>\n

IN A NUTSHELL:<\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Home building is holding in and with permits rising, it looks like additional construction could be on the way.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

WHAT IT MEANS:<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Builders have become quite optimistic, but the real question is: Are they translating that good feeling in action?\u00c2\u00a0 In October, at least, that just didn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t happen in all segments of the market.\u00c2\u00a0 Housing starts fell,<\/em><\/strong> but that was due to a huge drop in the very volatile multi-family segment.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>That is not that unusual.\u00c2\u00a0 Single-family construction rose<\/em><\/strong> to its second-highest level since spring, 2008.\u00c2\u00a0 Of course, the housing bubble had already burst by then, but at least we are moving forward.\u00c2\u00a0 We still have a long way to go, though, before we get back to solid levels.\u00c2\u00a0 Still, so far this year, starts are up by nearly 10% compared to the first ten months of 2013.\u00c2\u00a0 In any event, permit requests are running a little ahead of starts<\/em><\/strong> causing the number of units permitted but not started to jump.\u00c2\u00a0 That permit excess implies that building activity should start ramping up<\/em><\/strong> in those areas not covered with snow or ice.<\/p>\n

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong> The jump in the National Association of Home Builders index signaled growing confidence in the housing sector and low rates are leading to growing mortgage applications, so it is just a matter of time before builders start putting more shovels in the ground.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 That permit request are outpacing starts just reinforces that view because builders stopped speculating a long time ago.\u00c2\u00a0 That doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t necessarily mean we will a large increase in November.\u00c2\u00a0 The massive snowstorms and deep freeze will probably temporarily slow things down.\u00c2\u00a0 But housing is moving forward and that is what is important.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 For the Fed members, this type of report allows everyone to sit around and do nothing.\u00c2\u00a0 The starts numbers are neither weak, nor strong, nor not even just right.\u00c2\u00a0 They are just another sign of an economy that has yet to truly break out to the upside.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 As for investors, I guess if you don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t set a new record on any given day, it is a disappointment so maybe record setting is the key driving force.\u00c2\u00a0 It cannot be that the U.S. economy is so strong and the world economy is looking so good that happy days are here again.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Starts: -2.8%; 1-Family: +4.2%; Multi-Family: -15.4%; Permits: +4.8% IN A NUTSHELL: \u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Home building is holding in and with permits rising, it looks like additional construction could be on the way.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d WHAT IT MEANS:\u00c2\u00a0 Builders have become quite optimistic, but the real question is: Are they translating that good feeling in action?\u00c2\u00a0 In October, … Continue reading October Housing Starts and Permits<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators","category-housing-starts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=383"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/383\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":384,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/383\/revisions\/384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}