{"id":372,"date":"2014-11-22T09:33:05","date_gmt":"2014-11-22T14:33:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=372"},"modified":"2014-12-05T16:48:06","modified_gmt":"2014-12-05T21:48:06","slug":"october-new-home-sales-pending-home-sales-ad-november-consumer-confidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=372","title":{"rendered":"October New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales and November Consumer Confidence"},"content":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:<\/strong> New Homes: +0.7%\/Pending Sales: -1.1%\/Consumer Comfort: up 2.2 points<\/p>\n

IN A NUTSHELL:<\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153The housing market is marking time but improving consumer confidence may be coming at just the right time.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

WHAT IT MEANS:<\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0The housing market has been adding to growth since the winter wipeout but the impact has slowed.\u00c2\u00a0 That trend may be continuing.\u00c2\u00a0 New home sales did increase a touch in October<\/em><\/strong>, but only because the September pace was revised downward.\u00c2\u00a0 Builder confidence has been rising so the small gain, though better than some thought, was a surprise to me.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>The level of purchases has been in a tight pattern for the past three months and it is still below 500,000 a month, annualized.\u00c2\u00a0 Strong sales would be around one million, so the sector has a long way to go.\u00c2\u00a0 Demand was strong in the Northeast and Midwest but off in the South and West.\u00c2\u00a0 Prices, however, did surge.\u00c2\u00a0 The high end of the market looks like it may be coming back.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pending home sales<\/em><\/strong>, which are signed contracts for existing homes, dropped in October<\/em><\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 There were declines in all regions except the Northeast, which posted a modest rise.\u00c2\u00a0 This does not bode well for existing home sales, which are likely to rise minimally, if at all, <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

On a positive note, The Thompson Reuters\/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose in November.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 That was in sharp contrast to the large decline posted by the Conference Board\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s confidence index.\u00c2\u00a0 There was a small fall off from the mid-month reading, but sentiment hit a level not seen in more than seven years<\/em><\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 Both current conditions and expectations were up.\u00c2\u00a0 This report is also supported by an increase in the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to its highest level since December 2007.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong> Housing is just not improving very much at all.\u00c2\u00a0 But while it is critical that this market get going, for the holiday shopping season, the consumer numbers are what really matter.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 I had mentioned in my commentary on the Conference Board\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s confidence number that the decline made little sense.\u00c2\u00a0 That two other reports point to improving confidence is more in line with logic.\u00c2\u00a0 But logic and household perceptions don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t necessarily go hand-in-hand so we have to be a little uncertain about what people are thinking.\u00c2\u00a0 If confidence is rising, which I tend to think it is, then we could be in for a very good fourth quarter spending number.\u00c2\u00a0 That is what we really need.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 So on that note, let me say to everyone:<\/p>\n

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: New Homes: +0.7%\/Pending Sales: -1.1%\/Consumer Comfort: up 2.2 points IN A NUTSHELL: \u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153The housing market is marking time but improving consumer confidence may be coming at just the right time.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d WHAT IT MEANS: \u00c2\u00a0The housing market has been adding to growth since the winter wipeout but the impact has slowed.\u00c2\u00a0 That trend may … Continue reading October New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales and November Consumer Confidence<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,3,27,42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-consumer-sentiment","category-economic-indicators","category-new-home-sales","category-pending-home-sales"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=372"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/372\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":378,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/372\/revisions\/378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}