{"id":370,"date":"2014-12-03T10:20:46","date_gmt":"2014-12-03T15:20:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=370"},"modified":"2014-12-05T16:45:17","modified_gmt":"2014-12-05T21:45:17","slug":"november-supply-managers-non-manufacturing-index-adp-jobs-and-help-wanted-online","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=370","title":{"rendered":"November Supply Managers\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 Non-Manufacturing Index, ADP Jobs and Help Wanted Online"},"content":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:<\/strong> ISM: +2.2 points: Orders: +2.3 points; Employment: -2.9 points\/ADP: +208,000\/HWOL: +170,200<\/p>\n

IN A NUTSHELL:<\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153The October lull was just temporary and it looks like the job market is getting better.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

WHAT IT MEANS:<\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0Friday we get the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153all important\u00e2\u20ac\u009d November employment report but until then, we will be finding out from other sources how the economy did last month.\u00c2\u00a0 Right now, all signs are go.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>It appears that the services sector pause in October was only to refresh, not depress.\u00c2\u00a0 The Institute for Supply Management\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Non-Manufacturing index rebounded sharply in November, led by a surge in new orders.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Similar to the ISM manufacturing report, export demand jumped, though service sector imports grew a little less rapidly.\u00c2\u00a0 Despite ramped up production, order books are filling more rapidly and that bodes well for future activity.\u00c2\u00a0 The only negative was employment.\u00c2\u00a0 But the index simply came down from a very high level to a high level so hiring is still solid. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

I am still quite optimistic about Friday\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s jobs numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 ADP estimates that November private sector job gains came in at a decent though nothing-great level. <\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0Small businesses are hiring like crazy.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>That is interesting as the Paychex\/IHS Small Business Jobs Index fell in November, so I don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t know what to make of this.\u00c2\u00a0 There was some improvement in large firm hiring but that group needs to do more.\u00c2\u00a0 And more may be coming.\u00c2\u00a0 The Conference Board\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Help Wanted OnLine index jumped in November as the number of new ads surged.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Firms need more workers, but they don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t seem to be doing a good job filling the open positions.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 That view was supported by the latest semi-annual survey by Dice Holdings, which indicated that \u00e2\u20ac\u0153more U.S. companies are revving up hiring plans\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em>Even if Friday\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s report is not a huge one, next year is shaping up to be a great one for workers. \u00c2\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Every day, we continue to see that economic conditions are not only good but they are getting better.\u00c2\u00a0 The labor market is tightening and orders are flowing in.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Meanwhile, businesses continue to hold the line on compensation.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Today\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s revised productivity numbers indicate that there has been largely no gain in inflation-adjusted earnings over the past year.\u00c2\u00a0 That is good for earnings but bad for consumer spending. \u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0Investors should appreciate today\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s numbers as they point to a solid but hardly overheating labor market.\u00c2\u00a0 That implies the Fed may not be facing demands to raise rates anytime soon.\u00c2\u00a0 But the Fed members will be parsing Friday\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s unemployment rate and the wages data.\u00c2\u00a0 Those are the key indicators and as long as wages remain reasonably well contained, the FOMC can dither.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: ISM: +2.2 points: Orders: +2.3 points; Employment: -2.9 points\/ADP: +208,000\/HWOL: +170,200 IN A NUTSHELL: \u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153The October lull was just temporary and it looks like the job market is getting better.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d WHAT IT MEANS: \u00c2\u00a0Friday we get the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153all important\u00e2\u20ac\u009d November employment report but until then, we will be finding out from other sources … Continue reading November Supply Managers\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 Non-Manufacturing Index, ADP Jobs and Help Wanted Online<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,3,22,23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adp-payroll-estimate","category-economic-indicators","category-help-wanted-online","category-supply-managers-non-manufacturing-index"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/370","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=370"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/370\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":371,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/370\/revisions\/371"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}