{"id":363,"date":"2014-11-03T10:23:20","date_gmt":"2014-11-03T15:23:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=363"},"modified":"2014-11-04T05:32:04","modified_gmt":"2014-11-04T10:32:04","slug":"october-supply-managers-manufacturing-index","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=363","title":{"rendered":"October Supply Managers\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 Manufacturing Index"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>KEY DATA:<\/strong> ISM (Manufacturing): +2.4points; New Orders: +5.8 points; Employment: +0.9 point; backlogs: +6 points<\/p>\n<p><strong>IN A NUTSHELL:<\/strong> <strong><em>\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153The manufacturing sector is ramping up and it looks like strong October vehicle sales will keep things going.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>WHAT IT MEANS:<\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0<strong><em>After two consecutive quarters of strong economic activity, questions remain about the sustainability of growth. <\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0<strong><em>If the October consumer-oriented data that we have received so far are any indication, we could be in for another solid quarter.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 <strong><em>Last week we saw a jump in confidence<\/em><\/strong>, a necessary but not sufficient condition for strong growth.\u00c2\u00a0 <strong><em>The jump in the Institute for Supply Management\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s manufacturing index in October adds to the belief that the economy is in really good shape<\/em><\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 Activity surged back up to its August level, which was the highest in 3\u00c2\u00bd years.\u00c2\u00a0 <strong><em>New orders skyrocketed and with backlogs growing solidly, it looks like increases in production will continue.\u00c2\u00a0 Hiring accelerated as well<\/em><\/strong> as firms are adding workers to meet the growing demand.\u00c2\u00a0 Looking forward, <strong><em>early, but incomplete, sales numbers point to continued solid vehicle sales in October and that should help keep the momentum in the manufacturing sector going.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In a separate report, <strong><em>construction activity eased in September<\/em><\/strong>, which was somewhat of a surprise.\u00c2\u00a0 With state and local governments spending again, one of the places that they are using their newfound revenues is in infrastructure rebuilding.\u00c2\u00a0 That did not show up in this report and public activity fell.\u00c2\u00a0 <strong><em>Private sector construction was down slightly even as residential spending rose. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong> <strong><em>We seem to be in one of those Missouri moments, where despite six months of strong growth, everyone seems to still be saying, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153show me\u00e2\u20ac\u009d more.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Clearly, the Fed members are still somewhat agnostic about the current state of economic affairs.\u00c2\u00a0 But <strong><em>with Europe and Japan hurting and who knows what is going on in China, you don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t have a strong manufacturing sector unless the U.S. economy is humming along.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Investors should love the manufacturing and vehicle numbers, but on a day before an election, caution remains the better part of valor.\u00c2\u00a0 The markets are on hold and if some of the elections go as they could, we may be waiting weeks before we know who controls the Senate.\u00c2\u00a0 That would require people to turn their focus to the economic fundamentals, which right now look pretty good.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>KEY DATA: ISM (Manufacturing): +2.4points; New Orders: +5.8 points; Employment: +0.9 point; backlogs: +6 points IN A NUTSHELL: \u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153The manufacturing sector is ramping up and it looks like strong October vehicle sales will keep things going.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d WHAT IT MEANS: \u00c2\u00a0After two consecutive quarters of strong economic activity, questions remain about the sustainability of growth. \u00c2\u00a0If &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=363\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">October Supply Managers\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 Manufacturing Index<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators","category-supply-managers-manufacturing-index"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=363"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":364,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363\/revisions\/364"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}