{"id":352,"date":"2014-10-24T10:54:26","date_gmt":"2014-10-24T14:54:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=352"},"modified":"2014-10-29T01:35:11","modified_gmt":"2014-10-29T05:35:11","slug":"september-new-home-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=352","title":{"rendered":"September New Home Sales"},"content":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Sales: +0.2%; Year-over-Year: +17.0%; Prices (Year-over-Year): -4.0%<\/p>\n

IN A NUTSHELL:<\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0While the existing home segment is starting to run, the new home portion continues to take only baby steps.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

WHAT IT MEANS:<\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0The housing market is moving forward, but the gains are hardly great and there are some weak segments.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>The existing home part is in pretty decent shape as sales continue to rise and are nearing what we could call decent levels.\u00c2\u00a0 But the new home recovery is still in its infancy.\u00c2\u00a0 Yes, sales did rise to their highest level in over six years, but the rate is still way less than what would be considered healthy.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 Also, the August number was revised downward sharply, which was the real reason September posted a gain.\u00c2\u00a0 Looking across the nation, demand jumped in the Midwest, rose moderately in the South, was flat in the Northeast and cratered in the West.\u00c2\u00a0 As for prices, they look to be on the way down.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 There was a decline as builders may be downsizing to better match the market.\u00c2\u00a0 The number of homes on the market went up but given the sales pace, there is no major inventory overhang.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong> Housing is the most enigmatic sector in the economy.\u00c2\u00a0 It is up, then down and then up, but only in parts and only in fits and starts<\/em><\/strong> (pardon the pun).\u00c2\u00a0 While it is nice that the existing home segment is basically back, we really need more the new home portion to be hale and hearty if overall economic growth is to be strong.\u00c2\u00a0 That is hardly the case right now.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Sales are under one-half million units annualized and that needs to at least double.\u00c2\u00a0 That could take a while, which is probably a major understatement.\u00c2\u00a0 Thus, housing starts, at least for single-family dwellings, is likely to remain less than we would like to see for, to coin a phrase, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153a considerable time\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 This is not a report that should move almost anyone.\u00c2\u00a0 I have no idea what motivates investors right now but Fed members will not see this report as saying the housing market is so strong that rates should be hiked.\u00c2\u00a0 The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday and we get third quarter GDP the day after, so things should heat up.\u00c2\u00a0 But for now, there is no reason to believe that QE will not be ended or the Fed will remove \u00e2\u20ac\u0153considerable time\u00e2\u20ac\u009d from its statement.\u00c2\u00a0 The December meeting could be different.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Sales: +0.2%; Year-over-Year: +17.0%; Prices (Year-over-Year): -4.0% IN A NUTSHELL: \u00c2\u00a0While the existing home segment is starting to run, the new home portion continues to take only baby steps.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d WHAT IT MEANS: \u00c2\u00a0The housing market is moving forward, but the gains are hardly great and there are some weak segments.\u00c2\u00a0 The existing home … Continue reading September New Home Sales<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators","category-new-home-sales"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=352"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/352\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":353,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/352\/revisions\/353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}