{"id":326,"date":"2014-10-01T10:53:19","date_gmt":"2014-10-01T14:53:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=326"},"modified":"2014-10-15T10:56:10","modified_gmt":"2014-10-15T14:56:10","slug":"september-job-estimates-help-wanted-online-and-manufacturing-activity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=326","title":{"rendered":"September Job Estimates, Help Wanted Online and Manufacturing Activity"},"content":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:<\/strong> ADP Jobs: 213,000; Conference Board Help Wanted: -137,200; ISM (Man.): -2.4 points<\/p>\n

IN A NUTSHELL:<\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153The economy doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t seem to have picked up any steam in September.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

WHAT IT MEANS:<\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0We had great growth in the spring but that high rate doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t look to have been sustained as the summer ended.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>Today\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s string of September numbers were simply disappointing.\u00c2\u00a0 The ADP estimate of private sector job gains was okay, but below what we need to have for the labor market to really be strong.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Essentially, it looks like it was more of the same.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 What this means for Friday\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s number is unclear.\u00c2\u00a0 ADP believes that the private sector created about 415,000 jobs in the last two months.\u00c2\u00a0 The Bureau of Labor Statistics\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 first estimate of August private sector payrolls was a modest 134,000 rise.\u00c2\u00a0 Barring a major upward revision to the BLS August number, to get the two in synch would mean job gains of at least 250,000.\u00c2\u00a0 As for the ADP report, small and large businesses hired solidly.\u00c2\u00a0 The softness was in the mid-sized sector.\u00c2\u00a0 Why?\u00c2\u00a0 That is anybody\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s guess.\u00c2\u00a0 As an added insult to those of us who think that the labor market is stronger than perceived, the Conference Board reported that online want ads fell sharply in September.\u00c2\u00a0 The trend is still up but the data are bouncing around an awful lot.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

On the manufacturing front, the sector continues to expand solidly, but maybe not as robustly as it had been.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 The Institute for Supply Management\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s September activity index fell led by a sharp deceleration in order growth.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s keep in mind that this is a diffusion index and if you reach a high level of orders and stay there, the index actually goes down.\u00c2\u00a0 The level of the index is still very high, indicating that demand is strong, which can be seen in robust and expanding production.\u00c2\u00a0 Hiring, though, did moderate.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s see now: Orders are flowing in, production is ramping up but job growth is softening.\u00c2\u00a0 Got it.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe the shrinking of backlogs can explain that.<\/p>\n

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong> The first estimate of third quarter growth will be released at the end of October, so we have a month to wait.\u00c2\u00a0 It looks like the economy continued on a solid pace during the summer but well off the 4.6% rate posted in the spring quarter.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 The recent data have provided few signs that the economy is picking up steam.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 It would be nice to get a few quarters in a row of north of 4% growth but I doubt we will get that for a while.\u00c2\u00a0 Third quarter growth should be closer to 3% than 4%.\u00c2\u00a0 But at least the last six months have been pretty good.\u00c2\u00a0 Growth in the 3.75% range is something we have dreamed about yet people are discounting it.\u00c2\u00a0 I think that says a lot about how we are evaluating the economy.\u00c2\u00a0 Meanwhile, investors are waiting for Friday\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s employment report and watching Hong Kong and the dollar, so who know if even today\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s numbers will matter much.\u00c2\u00a0 As for the Fed, it still is all about the labor market and that means Friday is the big day.\u00c2\u00a0 I am sticking to my stronger than expected forecast but the consensus is for something in the 220,000.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 An average number will keep the pressure off Fed Chair Yellen<\/em><\/strong>, but only as long as the other data remain moderate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: ADP Jobs: 213,000; Conference Board Help Wanted: -137,200; ISM (Man.): -2.4 points IN A NUTSHELL: \u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153The economy doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t seem to have picked up any steam in September.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d WHAT IT MEANS: \u00c2\u00a0We had great growth in the spring but that high rate doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t look to have been sustained as the summer ended.\u00c2\u00a0 Today\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s string … Continue reading September Job Estimates, Help Wanted Online and Manufacturing Activity<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,22,25,23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-326","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators","category-help-wanted-online","category-job-openings","category-supply-managers-non-manufacturing-index"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=326"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":327,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326\/revisions\/327"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=326"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=326"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=326"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}