{"id":305,"date":"2014-09-03T16:41:41","date_gmt":"2014-09-03T20:41:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=305"},"modified":"2014-09-23T10:38:33","modified_gmt":"2014-09-23T14:38:33","slug":"august-conference-board-online-help-wanted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=305","title":{"rendered":"August Conference Board Online Help Wanted"},"content":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Ads: up 164,600<\/p>\n

IN A NUTSHELL:<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153With job openings rising as unemployment is falling, is there really any doubt that the labor market is tightening?\u00e2\u20ac\u009d <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

WHAT IT MEANS:<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0Businesses are out there looking for workers all over the place.\u00c2\u00a0 The Conference Board\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Help Wanted Online Index jumped sharply in August.\u00c2\u00a0 The rise in labor demand was spread across the nation <\/em><\/strong>as only five states had lower levels of ads.\u00c2\u00a0 Seventeen of the top twenty metropolitan areas reported gains.\u00c2\u00a0 Philadelphia was not one of them, though.\u00c2\u00a0 Which jobs are seeing an increase in demand?\u00c2\u00a0 All of them!\u00c2\u00a0 Every occupation category posted a rise in want ads.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 All of this is created some real labor shortages<\/em><\/strong>, not just a tightening in the labor market.\u00c2\u00a0 The ratio of the number unemployed to the number of job openings is a measure of labor availability.\u00c2\u00a0 Over the past three months, that ratio has averaged 1.93 workers per opening.\u00c2\u00a0 To put that in perspective, from May 2005, when the data were first released, to December 2007, when the expansion ended, the ratio averaged 1.95.\u00c2\u00a0 In other words, the current measure of availability is lower than what it generally was during a significant portion of the previous expansion.\u00c2\u00a0 Looking at occupations, computer and mathematical science, healthcare practitioners, management and business and financial operations<\/em><\/strong> all have ratios less than one.\u00c2\u00a0 In other words, they have already hit labor shortage status<\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0We still have to wait for Friday\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s report to see how much, if any, the labor market tightened in August.\u00c2\u00a0 Regardless, most of the labor market tightness indicators are flashing red.\u00c2\u00a0 So, why are we not yet seeing any pressure on wages?<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 My argument, which I have made a number of times in the past, is simple:\u00c2\u00a0 Business leaders have not had to worry about compensation or attraction and retention issues for so long that they don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t believe they have to do anything but pick the perfect job candidate and pay the person what they want to pay them.\u00c2\u00a0 Well, Bob Dylan said it best: \u00e2\u20ac\u0153The times, they are a-changin\u00e2\u20ac\u2122\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe the best way to end this piece is to quote the lyrics, which when it comes to the labor market may be the clearest warning:<\/p>\n

Come gather ’round people
\nWherever you roam
\nAnd admit that the waters
\nAround you have grown
\nAnd accept it that soon
\nYou’ll be drenched to the bone
\nIf your time to you
\nIs worth savin’
\nThen you better start swimmin’
\nOr you’ll sink like a stone
\nFor the times they are a-changin’.<\/em><\/p>\n

(Copyright \u00c2\u00a9 1963, 1964 by Warner Bros. Inc.; renewed 1991, 1992 by Special Rider Music)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Ads: up 164,600 IN A NUTSHELL:\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153With job openings rising as unemployment is falling, is there really any doubt that the labor market is tightening?\u00e2\u20ac\u009d WHAT IT MEANS:\u00c2\u00a0Businesses are out there looking for workers all over the place.\u00c2\u00a0 The Conference Board\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Help Wanted Online Index jumped sharply in August.\u00c2\u00a0 The rise in labor demand … Continue reading August Conference Board Online Help Wanted<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,4,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators","category-federal-reserve-policy","category-help-wanted-online"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=305"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/305\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":306,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/305\/revisions\/306"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}