{"id":282,"date":"2014-08-12T10:22:38","date_gmt":"2014-08-12T14:22:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=282"},"modified":"2014-08-13T10:22:58","modified_gmt":"2014-08-13T14:22:58","slug":"june-job-openings-and-labor-turnover-survey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=282","title":{"rendered":"June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey"},"content":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Openings: +94,000; Hires: +92,000; Quits: +48,000; Layoffs: -32,000<\/p>\n

IN A NUTSHELL:<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Businesses are hiring and people are quitting, two clear signs that the labor market is firming.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

WHAT IT MEANS:<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0There no longer is a question that the labor market is getting better.\u00c2\u00a0 The focus of attention has shifted to how quickly<\/em><\/strong>, since that will determine the speed at which worker compensation increases.\u00c2\u00a0 One report that has taken on more intense focus is the Bureau of Labor Statistics\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey.\u00c2\u00a0 This report is starting to flash red.\u00c2\u00a0 Job openings are surging and were the highest since early 2001 \u00e2\u20ac\u201c over thirteen years ago!\u00c2\u00a0 Meanwhile, hiring is also improving and that is back to spring 2008 levels<\/em><\/strong>, about six months before the banking meltdown.\u00c2\u00a0 But maybe the most important number in this report, at least as far as I am concerned, is the quits component.\u00c2\u00a0 People are actually leaving their jobs, something that has been unheard of over the past five or six years.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 True, the number of people telling their employers to take the job and, well you know what, is still not very high.\u00c2\u00a0 But that is changing, maybe the clearest indication that the labor market is getting back to normal.<\/p>\n

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong> Firms are looking for new employees but they are also having trouble filling the positions: Over the year, openings rose nearly twice as rapidly as hiring.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>That point was also seen in the National Federation of Independent Business July survey which found that 24% of the respondents had trouble filling openings.\u00c2\u00a0 Firms are also starting to face the problem that a growing number of workers are simply leaving.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 I have been warning about this likelihood for over six months now and the data are starting to support the view that six years of treating workers as if \u00e2\u20ac\u0153they are just overhead\u00e2\u20ac\u009d is going to be paid for by much faster increases in wages and\/or benefits than most business leaders have been expecting or planning for.\u00c2\u00a0 And my argument that the decline in the participation rate is due to longer-term demographic and social issues, i.e., it is structural not cyclical, also implies that labor supply will not keep up with demand and wages will have to rise.\u00c2\u00a0 The Fed can continue on its current course without creating massive problems for a while. \u00c2\u00a0But those who think that rates don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t have to rise until the second half of next year are underestimating the rate of tightening in the labor market. <\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0I have the Fed beginning to raise rates in the first quarter of 2015 – my forecast since last December – but for that to happen, the FOMC has to start outlining when it will start reducing its reinvestment of assets and then actually raising rates.\u00c2\u00a0 Quantitative easing is history.\u00c2\u00a0 Now is the time for Janet Yellen to tell us where we go from here and how she is going to get us there.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Openings: +94,000; Hires: +92,000; Quits: +48,000; Layoffs: -32,000 IN A NUTSHELL:\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Businesses are hiring and people are quitting, two clear signs that the labor market is firming.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d WHAT IT MEANS:\u00c2\u00a0There no longer is a question that the labor market is getting better.\u00c2\u00a0 The focus of attention has shifted to how quickly, since that will … Continue reading June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators","category-job-openings"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=282"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":283,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282\/revisions\/283"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}