{"id":265,"date":"2014-07-29T11:30:56","date_gmt":"2014-07-29T15:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=265"},"modified":"2014-07-30T08:57:35","modified_gmt":"2014-07-30T12:57:35","slug":"may-case-shiller-home-prices-and-july-paychex-small-business-hiring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=265","title":{"rendered":"May Case-Shiller Home Prices and July Paychex Small Business Hiring"},"content":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Case Shiller (Monthly): -0.3%; Annual: +9.3%\/Paychex: up 0.3%<\/p>\n

IN A NUTSHELL:<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Small businesses are hiring but the improving labor market conditions are not translating into booming home sales or prices.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

WHAT IT MEANS:<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Another day, another sign that economic conditions are improving but not across the board.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Today\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s fun numbers spoke about housing prices and small business hiring.\u00c2\u00a0 In May, home prices took a step backward, according to the S&P\/Case-Shiller home price measure.\u00c2\u00a0 The seasonally adjusted 20-city index fell<\/em><\/strong> between April and May with fourteen of the twenty cities posting declines.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>In April, only four cities saw home prices fade.\u00c2\u00a0 Looking over the year, prices are still up strongly, but the rate of gain is decelerating sharply<\/em><\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 It had peaked in November 2013 at 13.7%, so the increase is off one-third.\u00c2\u00a0 That said, the increases are still impressive with only New York, Charlotte and Cleveland having home costs increase by less than five percent.<\/p>\n

While housing seems to be in a lull, hiring is not.\u00c2\u00a0 The Paychex\/IHS Small Business Hiring Index rebounded from a spring thaw and is closing back in on the record high it posted in April<\/em><\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 Except for the West South Central, which includes Texas, all regions were up nicely over the year.\u00c2\u00a0 The Mountain and Midwestern regions led the way with somewhat more modest gains being recorded along the East Coast.<\/p>\n

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong> It just seems that when it comes to breaking out of its slow growth pattern, if it isn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t one thing that restrains activity it is another.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>When manufacturing came around, housing and the labor market lagged.\u00c2\u00a0 Then housing started to rebound, but jobs and incomes were not growing rapidly. \u00c2\u00a0Now that firms are hiring, the housing market is starting to stumble.\u00c2\u00a0 Will we ever get things going all at once?\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe, but not right away.\u00c2\u00a0 Still, the key remains wages and with small business hiring picking up, that bodes well for income growth.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 As for the housing situation, I differ from many of my colleagues.\u00c2\u00a0 While others bemoan the rising prices as a problem for first-time buyers, I cheer rising prices because they are lifting people out of the negative equity\/minimal equity trap.\u00c2\u00a0 Without enough equity to buy another home, families are basically \u00e2\u20ac\u0153home bound\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\u00c2\u00a0 The normal churn in the market, where current owners move around, is limited.\u00c2\u00a0 The more prices rise, the more households can move.\u00c2\u00a0 I think adding to equity is a more important factor in getting the housing market back to normal than keeping prices low so new buyers can enter.\u00c2\u00a0 But that is just me.\u00c2\u00a0 Anyway, it is still earnings season and with geopolitical concerns lurking, these reports are not likely to move the markets much.\u00c2\u00a0 And let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s not forget that the Fed has started its two-day meeting.\u00c2\u00a0 Not much news is expected tomorrow, when the FOMC meeting ends<\/em><\/strong>, but it still hangs over the markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Case Shiller (Monthly): -0.3%; Annual: +9.3%\/Paychex: up 0.3% IN A NUTSHELL:\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Small businesses are hiring but the improving labor market conditions are not translating into booming home sales or prices.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d WHAT IT MEANS:\u00c2\u00a0 Another day, another sign that economic conditions are improving but not across the board.\u00c2\u00a0 Today\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s fun numbers spoke about housing prices … Continue reading May Case-Shiller Home Prices and July Paychex Small Business Hiring<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,3,30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-265","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-case-shiller-home-prices","category-economic-indicators","category-paychex-small-business-hiring"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/265","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=265"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/265\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":266,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/265\/revisions\/266"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=265"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=265"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=265"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}