{"id":251,"date":"2014-07-08T13:51:29","date_gmt":"2014-07-08T17:51:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=251"},"modified":"2014-07-15T10:01:42","modified_gmt":"2014-07-15T14:01:42","slug":"may-job-openings-and-labor-turnover-survey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=251","title":{"rendered":"May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey"},"content":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Openings: +171,000; Hiring: -52,000; Quits: +60,000<\/p>\n

IN A NUTSHELL:<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Rising openings and increasing labor turnover is another sign that the labor market is improving rapidly.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

WHAT IT MEANS:<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0Despite the robust June jobs report, skepticism about the strength of the labor market remains.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 And the basis for that uncertainty is valid: Wages continue to rise minimally.\u00c2\u00a0 That more work needs to be done before firms are forced to start bidding for workers is clear, but that time may not be far off.\u00c2\u00a0 The monthly reading on job opening and labor turnover was a pretty good one.\u00c2\u00a0 Jobs openings jumped.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Since May 2013, they are up a nearly 20%.\u00c2\u00a0 Hiring has clearly not kept pace, in part because business leaders are not raising compensation so workers are not coming out of the woodworks to take the jobs.\u00c2\u00a0 But changes are in the air as the number of people quitting is rising<\/em><\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 Given all the uncertainty about the labor market, it takes a lot of guts to leave a job and since last May, there has been a nearly 15% increase in the number of people willingly leaving their jobs.<\/p>\n

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong> The JOLTS data are my favorite non-payroll numbers and members of the Fed, including Fed Chair Yellen, also watch them closely.\u00c2\u00a0 I like the quits data the most as it really gets to the heart of the uncertainty that workers have been facing: The inability to get another job.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 In this world, job security, as I have noted many times before, can be defined as \u00e2\u20ac\u0153the ability to walk across the street and get another job\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\u00c2\u00a0 That is still not readily possible, but the rise in people quitting and the jump in openings provide the basis for my belief that turnover rates could start to increase rapidly over the next six months.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 Businesses, though, don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t believe that is likely.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>They still complain about a lack of qualified workers but refuse to raise offers.\u00c2\u00a0 I call that the Einstein Insanity Defense: They continue to do the same thing, not raising wages, and keep getting the same results, no qualified workers at the prevailing wage.\u00c2\u00a0 It is as if there is only one curve in the labor market: the demand curve.\u00c2\u00a0 Business demand workers and workers are supposed to appear magically.\u00c2\u00a0 But there is a supply curve as well and that means that wages need to rise to attract the needed workers.\u00c2\u00a0 We will see how long it takes for businesses to recognize that fact.\u00c2\u00a0 But when they do, wages will jump and those that were slow in seeing that happening, as well the Fed, will have to scramble to catch up.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Openings: +171,000; Hiring: -52,000; Quits: +60,000 IN A NUTSHELL:\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Rising openings and increasing labor turnover is another sign that the labor market is improving rapidly.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d WHAT IT MEANS:\u00c2\u00a0Despite the robust June jobs report, skepticism about the strength of the labor market remains.\u00c2\u00a0 And the basis for that uncertainty is valid: Wages continue to rise … Continue reading May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,25,26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators","category-job-openings","category-labor-turnover-survey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/251","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=251"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/251\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":252,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/251\/revisions\/252"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}