{"id":226,"date":"2014-06-12T10:51:10","date_gmt":"2014-06-12T14:51:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=226"},"modified":"2014-06-12T10:51:10","modified_gmt":"2014-06-12T14:51:10","slug":"may-retail-sales-and-import-and-export-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=226","title":{"rendered":"May Retail Sales and Import and Export Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Sales: +0.3%; Excluding Vehicle: +0.1%\/Non-Fuel Import Prices: 0%; Farm Export Prices: +0.5%\/Jobless Claims: 317,000 (up 4,000)<\/p>\n

IN A NUTSHELL:<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Consumers are out shopping but maybe not as much as hoped.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

WHAT IT MEANS<\/strong>:<\/em> Households spent money in May but they were\u00c2\u00a0 hardly irrationally exuberant with their purchases.\u00c2\u00a0 Retail sales rose moderately but that came on top of an upward revision to the April gains so this report is somewhat better than it appears on the surface<\/strong><\/em>, or if you only looked at the headline number.\u00c2\u00a0 Robust gains in vehicle sales were expected to push total retail demand up more sharply but that was based on a modest rise that was initially estimated for April.\u00c2\u00a0 The previous month\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s increase is now put at a very respectable 0.5% pace, not a mediocre 0.1% rise.\u00c2\u00a0 So far this quarter, retail sales are rising very solidly.\u00c2\u00a0 Outside the expected jump in vehicle demand, the rest of the report was a bit strange.\u00c2\u00a0 There were solid increases in furniture, building supplies and Internet retailers but weakness in electronics and appliances, clothing, department stores and food.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 So it is unclear what people are thinking when they go out to shop.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

On the inflation front, import prices remain pretty tame, especially when you exclude fuel.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 We are beginning to see the pressure on food costs easing, which is good news for consumers.\u00c2\u00a0 Imported capital goods prices did tick up, but there is not a lot of pressure there, which is also the case with consumer goods.\u00c2\u00a0 On the export side, farmers are beginning to get some more money for their products, which is good news for the agricultural sector.<\/p>\n

As for the labor market, jobless claims rose a touch but the level remains low enough that we are likely to see another very solid job gain when the June employment data are released.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 We could also see the unemployment rate ease as well.<\/p>\n

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong> We are having a spring rebound though it may not be quite as robust as we had hoped.\u00c2\u00a0 Consumer spending is clearly rising and another decent gain in June would cement the belief that households are once again playing their part in the recovery.<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 What will propel things faster, though, is some pay increases.\u00c2\u00a0 That seems to be coming as the low level of unemployment claims points to further tightening in the labor market.\u00c2\u00a0 But we are months away from the point where businesses will realize that conditions have turned.<\/em><\/strong> \u00c2\u00a0After having dismissed worker compensation from their minds for so long, it may take a crisis before many executives recognize they have a real problem on their hands.\u00c2\u00a0 As for the markets, this should be a largely non-event.\u00c2\u00a0 With international issues playing a part in trader thinking, I suspect not much will be made of any of the reports released today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Sales: +0.3%; Excluding Vehicle: +0.1%\/Non-Fuel Import Prices: 0%; Farm Export Prices: +0.5%\/Jobless Claims: 317,000 (up 4,000) IN A NUTSHELL:\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Consumers are out shopping but maybe not as much as hoped.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d WHAT IT MEANS: Households spent money in May but they were\u00c2\u00a0 hardly irrationally exuberant with their purchases.\u00c2\u00a0 Retail sales rose moderately but that came … Continue reading May Retail Sales and Import and Export Prices<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,13,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators","category-import-and-export-prices","category-retail-sales"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=226"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":227,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226\/revisions\/227"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}