{"id":2189,"date":"2022-04-19T10:45:11","date_gmt":"2022-04-19T14:45:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=2189"},"modified":"2022-04-19T10:45:11","modified_gmt":"2022-04-19T14:45:11","slug":"march-housing-starts-and-permits-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=2189","title":{"rendered":"March Housing Starts and Permits"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KEY DATA:<\/u><\/strong>  Starts: +0.3%; Over-Year: +3.9%; 1-Family; -1.7%; Permits: +0.4%; Over-Year: +6.7%; 1-Family: -4.8%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IN A NUTSHELL:<\/u><\/strong> \u201cHome construction is hanging in there.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT IT MEANS:<\/u><\/strong>\u00a0 With the 30-year fixed rate mortgage topping five percent for the first time in over eleven years, the future of the housing market is becoming questionable.\u00a0 For now, home construction is still decent.\u00a0 Housing starts edged up in March, but the rise came with some doubts.\u00a0 The entire gain can be traced to a nearly 250% surge in new multi-family construction in the Northeast.\u00a0 That was a clear anomaly<\/em><\/strong>, so we shouldn\u2019t draw any conclusions from the overall rise in housing starts for the nation.\u00a0 Construction was up in the West but dropped in the Midwest and South.\u00a0 Looking into the future, there was good news<\/em><\/strong> in the report. Permit requests remain well above starts and that is a sign that future construction should be improve. <\/em><\/strong>\u00a0Indeed, the number of homes permitted but not started keeps climbing and builders aren\u2019t spending money for permits for the fun of it.\u00a0 Indeed, the number of units under construction is higher than at any point during the housing bubble and the fourth highest on record.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

IMPLICATIONS:With housing supply scarce, builders are stepping into the gap and trying to fill it with new housing units.\u00a0 That makes sense, as homebuyers are willing to purchase anything available.But there could be some trouble brewing, as mortgage rates are likely to continue rising.<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0 Initially, homes, be they new or existing, should continue selling as buyers make moves before rates get too high.\u00a0 But eventually, the combination of higher rates and prices should slow demand.\u00a0 With so many homes under construction and so many more permitted, it is not clear the market will be able to support all that activity.<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0 Is there a bubble building in the new home market?\u00a0 It isn\u2019t here yet, but the indicators need to be watched closely.\u00a0 The saving factor is that the existing home market, which comprises over eighty-eight percent of the sales, has few homes on the market.\u00a0 The much smaller new home market can fill in some of the empty space, but it might take a surge in existing home inventory to create a major bubble in supply.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:  Starts: +0.3%; Over-Year: +3.9%; 1-Family; -1.7%; Permits: +0.4%; Over-Year: +6.7%; 1-Family: -4.8% IN A NUTSHELL: \u201cHome construction is hanging in there.\u201d WHAT IT MEANS:\u00a0 With the 30-year fixed rate mortgage topping five percent for the first time in over eleven years, the future of the housing market is becoming questionable.\u00a0 For now, home … Continue reading March Housing Starts and Permits<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2189","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2189"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2189\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2190,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2189\/revisions\/2190"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2189"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2189"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2189"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}