{"id":1630,"date":"2019-11-26T12:13:30","date_gmt":"2019-11-26T17:13:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1630"},"modified":"2019-11-26T12:13:30","modified_gmt":"2019-11-26T17:13:30","slug":"november-consumer-confidence-october-new-home-sales-and-september-case-shiller-housing-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1630","title":{"rendered":"November Consumer Confidence, October New Home Sales and September Case-Shiller Housing Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KEY DATA:<\/strong>  Confidence: -0.6 points\/ New Home Sales: -0.7%\/\nC-S Home Prices (Month): +0.4%\/ Over-Year: +3.2% <\/p>\n\n\n\n

IN A\nNUTSHELL:<\/strong>  \u201cThe housing market is showing some life and\nthat is good news for builders and the economy in general.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT IT\nMEANS:<\/strong>  The fourth quarter is not looking good, but\nmaybe we shouldn\u2019t give up hope just yet. \nWe are entering the key shopping season and households may not be\nirrational exuberant, but they are not depressed either.  The Conference Board\u2019s Consumer Confidence\nIndex fell in November, the fourth consecutive decline.  <\/em><\/strong>You would think that would set off\nwarning bells, but the reality is that the level of the index is still quite\nsolid.  In addition, expectations rose,\nan indication that while current conditions are fading, households still hold\nout hope that things will turn around.<\/em><\/strong> \nAnd hope tends to drive demand at this time of year, especially since\npeople are looking for any reason to spend. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive sign is coming from the new housing\nmarket.  Sales eased back a touch in\nOctober but demand is on a clear, upward trend. \nAnd purchases are beginning to close in on what might be considered to\nbe a solid sales level.<\/em><\/strong>  So far this year, total sales\nare up over 9% compared to the same period in 2018.  Unfortunately, the gains are not being shared\nevenly across the nation.  In October,\ndemand rose in the Midwest and West but dropped in the Northeast and\nSouth.  For the first ten months, sales\nsurged in the South and West but were down almost as sharply in the Northeast\nand Midwest.  As for prices, they were off\nover the year but much of that had to do with the significant decline in the\npercentage of high cost homes purchased. \nThat seems to be turning around, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National home\nprice index rose in September<\/em><\/strong> and it looks like the decline over the year is\nstabilizing.<\/em><\/strong>  There is an\ninteresting pattern that has occurred since the end of the Great Recession.  While the housing price recovery was early\nand sharp in some of the larger metro areas used in the 20-City index, those\ngains have faded significantly. \nMeanwhile, the National index, which includes metro areas of all sizes,\nis holding up quite well.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There were two Federal Reserve regional bank indices\nreleased today and they went in opposite directions.  The Philadelphia Fed\u2019s NonManufacturing Index\nrose sharply but the Richmond Fed\u2019s manufacturing measure softened.<\/em><\/strong>  That shows how some sectors and parts of the\ncounty are doing well while others are faltering, which is right in line with\nthe belief that the economy is growing, but at a modest to moderate pace.MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong>The\neconomy is neither a turkey nor a sweet potato pie<\/em><\/strong> (I love sweet potato\npie!).  It is growing, but it would take\na politician to say it is in good, let alone great shape.  GDP growth is likely to have remained below\n2% again in the final quarter of the year and for all of 2019, it looks like it\nwill come in at about 2.25%.  So, when I\ncall it the \u201cback to the future economy\u201d, I am simply saying that we are\nmatching the growth that we saw during much of the 2010s. <\/em><\/strong>Most people considered\nthat pace to be disappointing, but as I noted then, it is still trend growth.  So, saying things are bad would be too harsh.  \n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:  Confidence: -0.6 points\/ New Home Sales: -0.7%\/ C-S Home Prices (Month): +0.4%\/ Over-Year: +3.2% IN A NUTSHELL:  \u201cThe housing market is showing some life and that is good news for builders and the economy in general.\u201d WHAT IT MEANS:  The fourth quarter is not looking good, but maybe we shouldn\u2019t give up hope … Continue reading November Consumer Confidence, October New Home Sales and September Case-Shiller Housing Prices<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1630"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1630\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1631,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1630\/revisions\/1631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}