{"id":1628,"date":"2019-11-21T14:44:07","date_gmt":"2019-11-21T19:44:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1628"},"modified":"2019-11-21T14:44:07","modified_gmt":"2019-11-21T19:44:07","slug":"october-existing-home-sales-leading-economic-indicators-and-november-philadelphia-fed-nonmanufacturing-index","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1628","title":{"rendered":"October Existing Home Sales, Leading Economic Indicators and November Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Index"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KEY DATA:<\/strong>  Sales: +1.9%; Prices (Over-Year): +6.2%\/ LEI:\n-0.1%\/ Phyla. Fed (NonMan.): +4.8 points; Orders: -17.8 points; Hiring: -11.4\npoints<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IN A\nNUTSHELL:<\/strong>  \u201cModest housing sales gains, coupled with\nweakening indications of future growth are a worrisome combination.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT IT\nMEANS:<\/strong> The\ndrama that is playing out in Congress is not the only stage where concerns are\ngrowing.  On the economic front, the data\nare just not looking great.  Housing\nis okay, but just okay.  Existing home\ndemand improved moderately in October.  The\ngains were concentrated mostly in the South, with a smaller increase in the\nMidwest<\/em><\/strong>. On the other hand, demand fell in the Northeast and the\nWest.  As far as prices go, they are\nrising strongly again<\/em><\/strong>. A combination of firming demand and a paucity of\nhomes for sale is driving up costs to buyers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It doesn\u2019t appear as if housing is improving enough\nto offset the weakness in other sectors. \nThe Conference Board\u2019s Leading Economic Index posted its third\nconsecutive decline in October.  For the\nfirst time in nearly three and a half years, the six-month growth rate was\nnegative<\/em><\/strong>.  That is not good news and, as the report\nnotes, \u201cthe LEI suggests that the economy will end the year on a weak note\u201d.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Philadelphia Fed\u2019s survey of nonmanufacturing\ncompanies posted a nice gain in early November. <\/em><\/strong> But that was for general economic\nactivity.  When it came to the firm itself,\nthe details were not good.  New orders,\nbacklogs, hiring and hours worked all expanded more slowly.<\/em><\/strong>  Optimism remains reasonably high, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weekly jobless claims were flat, but they are still\nat a five-month high<\/em><\/strong>.  I don\u2019t want to read too much\ninto that, but it does need to be watched. \n       <\/em><\/strong>MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong> And the beat goes on, and the beat goes\non.  The current quarter is not setting up to be\nvery good.  Thankfully, we have not only\nturkey coming up, but the biggest shopping period as well.  Consumers just might save the day, but it is\nnot clear they can turn a mediocre quarter into something satisfying.<\/em><\/strong>That the Conference Board\u2019s leading index\npoints clearly to a slowdown (no recession yet) is not to be taken lightly\nsince the other economic numbers support that conclusion. <\/em><\/strong> But, as Mr. Powell has noted, Fed actions take\nup to a year to have full effect, so maybe the rate cuts will cause the economy\nto accelerate.  If you believe that,\ncontact me and I will sell you my share of the Broadway play I am producing.\nSo, there is only one thing to do.  Start\nyour Black Friday shopping early and buy, buy, buy and then go out and eat like\ncrazy next Thursday.  At least when it\ncomes to the eating part, I will follow it as best as I can.  As for the shopping, nah, not so much.  Meanwhile, investors seem to be hiding under\nrocks and not taking any bold positions. \nGiven the growing uncertainty over the mini-trade deal, that makes\nsense.  Meanwhile the Fed keeps crowing\n(or is it gobbling?) about how great they are doing.  It was made clear in the minutes from the\nOctober FOMC meeting, which were released yesterday, that the Committee expects\nto be on hold for an extended period.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:  Sales: +1.9%; Prices (Over-Year): +6.2%\/ LEI: -0.1%\/ Phyla. Fed (NonMan.): +4.8 points; Orders: -17.8 points; Hiring: -11.4 points IN A NUTSHELL:  \u201cModest housing sales gains, coupled with weakening indications of future growth are a worrisome combination.\u201d WHAT IT MEANS: The drama that is playing out in Congress is not the only stage where … Continue reading October Existing Home Sales, Leading Economic Indicators and November Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Index<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1628","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1628"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1628\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1629,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1628\/revisions\/1629"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1628"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1628"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1628"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}