{"id":1615,"date":"2019-10-17T14:07:22","date_gmt":"2019-10-17T18:07:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1615"},"modified":"2019-10-17T14:07:22","modified_gmt":"2019-10-17T18:07:22","slug":"september-industrial-production-housing-starts-october-philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-index-and-weekly-jobless-claims","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1615","title":{"rendered":"September Industrial Production, Housing Starts, October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Weekly Jobless Claims"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KEY DATA:<\/strong>  IP: -0.4%; Manufacturing: -0.5%\/ Starts:\n-9.4%; Permits: -2.7%\/ Phil. Fed (Manufacturing): -6.4 points; Expectations:\n+13 points\/ Claims: +4,000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IN A\nNUTSHELL:<\/strong>  \u201cAnother day, another set of disappointing\neconomic numbers.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT IT\nMEANS:<\/strong>  \u201c<\/em><\/strong>And the beat down goes on, and the\nbeat down goes on.  The data keep pounding\nthe message into my brain\u201d – that the economy is slowing!  Today, two major reports, industrial\nproduction and housing starts, were released and to put it simply, they were\nnot very good.<\/em><\/strong>   Let\u2019s start with output<\/em><\/strong>, which is\nthe Fed\u2019s own data release.  The\nkey number was manufacturing, which declined sharply September.  The GM strike cratered vehicle production<\/em><\/strong>\nand that was the most glaring drop in the index.  However, of the remaining ten components in\nthe durable goods segment, five others were down.  Indeed, excluding vehicles, durable good production\nstill fell, though modestly (0.1%).<\/em><\/strong> Also, nondurable goods output declined,\nso you cannot say the weakness in manufacturing was simply a labor-related\nissue.  <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the housing front, starts posted a huge decline\nin September.<\/em><\/strong>  Again, the number needs to be\nviewed in context.  The August number was up over\n15%, to the highest in over twelve years. \n<\/em><\/strong>There didn\u2019t seem to be a logical reason that so high a level\nwould be reached. Consequently, a decline was expected.<\/em><\/strong>  But, the September construction pace was pretty\nmuch in line with average for the year<\/em><\/strong> and below the average for the\nquarter, so the best you can say is that homebuilding continues, but it is not\nrising very rapidly.  As\nfor the future, permit requests, while down over the month, are still running\nwell above starts, so we should see a pick up in activity over the next few\nmonths.  <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Philadelphia Fed\u2019s October manufacturing index\nposted a moderate decline.<\/em><\/strong>  This index\nbounces around quite a bit, so what may seem like a large drop was really not\nthat much.  Orders remained solid and hiring\npicked up<\/em><\/strong>, which is good news.  As\nfor expectations, they were up solidly across the board.<\/em><\/strong> At least in\nthe Mid-Atlantic region, manufacturing may be slowing, but not by much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jobless claims remained quite low as firms continue\nto scramble for workers.MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong>Third\nquarter growth is setting up for a disappointing number.  We get the first estimate of GDP on October\n30th<\/sup> and the FOMC will have the number.  Assuming the growth rate comes in close to\nexpectations, which is between 1.5% and 2%, I don\u2019t think it will change any\nthinking.<\/em><\/strong>  The minutes of the\nlast meeting and comments from members indicate two things: The trade war is\nthe overarching issue facing the Committee and the members are split on how to\ndeal with the potential impacts, given the outcomes are so potentially\ndifferent.  A full-fledged trade\/tariff war\nlikely means recession.  An agreement\nmeans more 2% or so growth.  So, doing\nmore or doing nothing both come with real risks.  That is likely to be the debate.  <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA:  IP: -0.4%; Manufacturing: -0.5%\/ Starts: -9.4%; Permits: -2.7%\/ Phil. Fed (Manufacturing): -6.4 points; Expectations: +13 points\/ Claims: +4,000 IN A NUTSHELL:  \u201cAnother day, another set of disappointing economic numbers.\u201d WHAT IT MEANS:  \u201cAnd the beat down goes on, and the beat down goes on.  The data keep pounding the message into my brain\u201d … Continue reading September Industrial Production, Housing Starts, October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Weekly Jobless Claims<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1615"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1615\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1616,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1615\/revisions\/1616"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}