{"id":1596,"date":"2019-09-13T09:54:41","date_gmt":"2019-09-13T13:54:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1596"},"modified":"2019-09-13T09:54:41","modified_gmt":"2019-09-13T13:54:41","slug":"august-retail-sales-and-import-and-export-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1596","title":{"rendered":"August Retail Sales and Import and Export Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Sales: +0.4%; Ex-Vehicles:\n0%\/ Import Prices: -0.5%; Nonfuel: 0%; Fuel: -4.3%; Export Prices: -0.6%; Farm:\n-2.5%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IN A\nNUTSHELL:<\/strong>  \u201cConsumers are still consuming, but at a\nsomewhat lesser pace.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT IT\nMEANS:<\/strong>  The broad shouldered consumer continues to\nspend, though it may be that the declining level of confidence is causing some\neasing in the exuberance.  Retail sales\nrose more than expected in August but that was due to a surprisingly large jump\nin vehicle sales.<\/em><\/strong>  It is tough to\nget a handle on vehicle demand since a number of large companies are no longer\nreleasing monthly sales numbers, only quarterly ones.  The Census Bureau does its own survey so it\nis not as impacted greatly by the change in practice.  That said, it is good that households\ncontinue to purchase big-ticket items.<\/em><\/strong> \nPeople also bought heavily online, spruced up their homes and purchased\nlots of health care products and sporting goods.<\/em><\/strong>  There was a sharp decline in gasoline\npurchases, but chalk that up to falling prices, which were off more than the\ndrop in sales.  There were some weak\nsegments of the report.  Apparently,\nhouseholds went on diets as sales of both food at home and away were down.  General merchandise, clothing and furniture\nsales also declined.  In general, though,\nthis was a decent but not great report.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the inflation front, I am once again dusting off\nmy microscope so I can see where inflation may be coming from.  It is not from imports.  Prices of foreign goods were down in August,\nled by a cratering of petroleum costs.  Imported\nfood prices eased back, capital goods costs were flat while vehicle and\nconsumer goods prices moved up modestly. \nBasically, don\u2019t look for imports (pre-tariff) to add to inflation. <\/em><\/strong> On the export side, the trade war battered farm\nsector saw its export prices fall sharply once again. <\/em><\/strong> That wiped out the gains posted in June and\nJuly.  Businesses selling capital and\nconsumer goods overseas saw their prices go nowhere while vehicle prices\nfell.  MARKETS AND FED\nPOLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong>The more\ndata that are released, the more it is clear that growth may have moderated but\nit hasn\u2019t cratered.  If the Fed were a\n\u201cdata-dependent\u201d organization, it would have little reason to fear a recession.<\/em><\/strong>  Actually, that is precisely what Fed Chair\nPowell said recently.  So,\nwhy are the markets expecting a rate cut? \nBecause, as I said, the Fed is no longer data-dependent.<\/em><\/strong>What it is depending on is anyone\u2019s\nguess.  <\/em><\/strong>Maybe it is fear of the\nequity markets not liking it if it doesn\u2019t do what the equity markets want it\nto do.  Maybe it is Jay Powell\u2019s\ngut.  It ain\u2019t the data, that\u2019s for sure.  As for the markets, it is still all about the\nebb and flow of the trade talks.<\/em><\/strong> \nThe Chinese seem to be up to their usual tricks.  They say they are willing to get\nmarried.  They start walking down the\naisle.  But ultimately, they stop and say\nthat they want to think it over more and walk away.  They have done all of those during the\neighteen months of the trade war and maybe this time it is different, but I\nwill believe it when I see it.  Yes, I am\na cynic.  The strategy of putting off\ndoing what they don\u2019t want to do has been successful for decades and with the\nlatest Chinese economic data seemingly pointing to a stabilizing economy, the\nChinese may be encouraged to start the marriage process again.  Just don\u2019t expect them to say \u201cI do\u201d anytime\nsoon.  At least I don\u2019t expect that to\nhappen.  But hope springs eternal in the\nhearts and souls of investors, so any movement forward is received with open\narms \u2013 and higher prices.   \n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Sales: +0.4%; Ex-Vehicles: 0%\/ Import Prices: -0.5%; Nonfuel: 0%; Fuel: -4.3%; Export Prices: -0.6%; Farm: -2.5% IN A NUTSHELL:  \u201cConsumers are still consuming, but at a somewhat lesser pace.\u201d WHAT IT MEANS:  The broad shouldered consumer continues to spend, though it may be that the declining level of confidence is causing some easing … Continue reading August Retail Sales and Import and Export Prices<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1596"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1596\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1597,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1596\/revisions\/1597"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}