{"id":1588,"date":"2019-09-05T14:59:19","date_gmt":"2019-09-05T18:59:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1588"},"modified":"2019-09-05T14:59:19","modified_gmt":"2019-09-05T18:59:19","slug":"august-private-sector-jobs-nonmanufacturing-activity-layoff-notices-jobless-claims","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1588","title":{"rendered":"August Private Sector Jobs, NonManufacturing Activity, Layoff Notices, Jobless Claims"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KEY DATA:<\/strong> ADP: 195,000; ISM\n(NonMan.):  +2.7 points; Orders: +6.2\npoints; Employment: -3.1 points\/ Layoffs: 53,480\/ Claims: +1,000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IN A\nNUTSHELL:<\/strong>  \u201cWhile all eyes are on tomorrow\u2019s employment\nreport, today\u2019s data reinforce the view that the economy continues to hold its\nown.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT IT\nMEANS:<\/strong>  The job market will be the key factor if we\nare to escape a recession created by an extended trade war<\/em><\/strong>.  Thus, any report that provides insight into\nwhat is happening will be analyzed closely. \nToday, the data pointed mostly to continued good gains in jobs.<\/em><\/strong>  The ADP reading of August private sector\nemployment gains came in well expectations. \n<\/em><\/strong>There was a surprisingly decent rise in manufacturing payrolls\nand less surprising surges in education and health and leisure and\nhospitality.  Schools are going back\nearlier and it was a generally strong tourism\/vacation year.  Otherwise, there were really no major\noutliers.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rest of the labor market data were mixed.  Supporting the idea that the labor market\nhas not faltered was the modest rise in jobless claims last week. <\/em><\/strong> The level remains near historic lows.  On the other hand, the Challenger, Gray and\nChristmas report on layoff notices was pretty disturbing.  The number was the highest for an August\nsince 2009.  We don\u2019t want to see any\nemployment data point compared to any 2009 number! <\/em><\/strong> For the first eight months of this year\ncompared to last year, layoff notices are up over 36%.  That is worrisome and might be an early sign\nof building problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While manufacturing may be the first casualty of the\ntrade war, the remainder of the economy remains solid.  The Institute for Supply Management\u2019s\nNonManufacturing rose sharply in August as new orders surged.  However, hiring looks like it is moderating. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

MARKETS AND\nFED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong>  The\nlabor market appears to be in decent shape, but how strong is unclear.  The August employment report, that we get\ntomorrow, may tell us more.  The\nconsensus is for job gains to be in the 170,000 range, though I think that is\nhigh.<\/em><\/strong>  I just don\u2019t see\nmanufacturers adding workers as the ADP report indicated.  But I am not looking for a really weak\nnumber.  I think something in the 150,000\nrange looks reasonable.  What\nI am watching more carefully is the unemployment rate.  It is still extraordinarily low, but it looks\nlike the bottom has been reached and it is slowly inching up.  I don\u2019t rule out it ticking up to 3.8%.<\/em><\/strong>  I have to laugh writing that there would be\nconcern with a 3.8% rate since historically, it is really low.  But direction matters and a further rise will be\nwhat is reported and what consumers see. \n<\/em><\/strong>We need household confidence to remain strong and rising\nunemployment rates, even if they are from a low level, don\u2019t create warm and\nfuzzy feelings in workers.<\/em><\/strong>  As\nfor the markets, it is still all about the trade war and anytime investors hear\nthat there might be an armistice, they celebrate.  But after the celebration, we usually get a\nhangover driven by the reality that the war is not over and that is likely to\nbe the case once again.  And that means\ninvestors should discount the daily wild fluctuations.  Otherwise, we may see more jobs in the health\ncare sector as people get their ulcers treated. \n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: ADP: 195,000; ISM (NonMan.):  +2.7 points; Orders: +6.2 points; Employment: -3.1 points\/ Layoffs: 53,480\/ Claims: +1,000 IN A NUTSHELL:  \u201cWhile all eyes are on tomorrow\u2019s employment report, today\u2019s data reinforce the view that the economy continues to hold its own.\u201d WHAT IT MEANS:  The job market will be the key factor if we … Continue reading August Private Sector Jobs, NonManufacturing Activity, Layoff Notices, Jobless Claims<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1588","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1588","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1588"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1588\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1589,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1588\/revisions\/1589"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1588"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1588"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1588"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}