{"id":1530,"date":"2019-05-17T11:57:01","date_gmt":"2019-05-17T15:57:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1530"},"modified":"2019-05-17T11:57:01","modified_gmt":"2019-05-17T15:57:01","slug":"early-may-consumer-sentiment-and-april-leading-indicators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1530","title":{"rendered":"Early May Consumer Sentiment and April Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Sentiment: +5.2 points;\nExpectations: +8.6 points; Current Conditions: +0.1 point\/ LEI: +0.2% <\/p>\n\n\n\n

IN A\nNUTSHELL:<\/strong>  \u201cHopes for the future run high, but that was\nbefore the trade war went nuclear, so let\u2019s wait and see where things stand.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT IT\nMEANS:<\/strong>  Consumers will drive this economy and it\nlooks like they are quite exuberant – maybe. \nIn the first part of May, the University of Michigan\u2019s Consumer\nSentiment Index hit its highest level in fifteen years, led by a surge in the\nexpectations index.<\/em><\/strong>  But the\nreport indicated that most of the data were collected before the\ntrade talks collapsed.  The numbers\ncoming in afterward were a lot different, with expectations much weaker.<\/em><\/strong>  This is especially important since the\ncurrent conditions component was largely flat. \nSo, before we celebrate a consumer that is as happy as can be, let\u2019s see\nwhat happens when the final numbers come out on May 31st<\/sup>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the Conference Board\u2019s Leading\nEconomic Index rose moderately in April.<\/em><\/strong>  After\nhaving pretty much flattened early in the year, the index is moving back\nup.  However, the rate of rise points to more\nmoderate growth in the near future<\/em><\/strong>, which is in line with what most\neconomists and the data are forecasting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MARKETS AND\nFED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong>  The\nmarkets reacted quite negatively to the raising of tariffs and will likely do\nthe same if the tariffs on Chinese goods are broadened.  But after thinking it over, investors seemed\nto decide that it was just a \u201cnever mind\u201d moment. <\/em><\/strong> I am not sure what investors are thinking or\neven consumers and that is a concern.  Do\npeople think that tariffs don\u2019t matter? \nReally?  If so, then you can\ndescribe the current consumer confidence numbers and the behavior of the\nmarkets as showing signs of irrational exuberance.<\/em><\/strong>  Even worse, if tariffs don\u2019t matter, what\nwould stop our trading partners from putting tariffs on our goods and why would\nwe not do the same with Europe and\/or Japan. \nThose nations may not be as egregious in their trade restrictions as\nChina, but they have some pretty significant ways of controlling trade as well.\n Do we really want to go down that\nroad?  The trade situation undoubtedly\nwill add even more volatility to the already volatile data.  That makes the Fed\u2019s \u201cdata dependency\u201d not\nmuch different than a roller coaster.  The\nFed members need to buckle up, because things could get really crazy in the\nnext few months.<\/em><\/strong>   <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Sentiment: +5.2 points; Expectations: +8.6 points; Current Conditions: +0.1 point\/ LEI: +0.2% IN A NUTSHELL:  \u201cHopes for the future run high, but that was before the trade war went nuclear, so let\u2019s wait and see where things stand.\u201d WHAT IT MEANS:  Consumers will drive this economy and it looks like they are quite … Continue reading Early May Consumer Sentiment and April Leading Indicators<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1530","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1530"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1530\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1531,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1530\/revisions\/1531"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1530"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1530"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}