{"id":1521,"date":"2019-05-07T12:25:07","date_gmt":"2019-05-07T16:25:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1521"},"modified":"2019-05-07T12:25:07","modified_gmt":"2019-05-07T16:25:07","slug":"march-job-openings-jolts-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1521","title":{"rendered":"March Job Openings (JOLTS report)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Openings: +346,000;\nSeparations: -142,000; Quits: -38,000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IN A\nNUTSHELL:<\/strong>  \u201cJob openings are near record highs despite\nlimited layoffs and quits.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT IT\nMEANS:<\/strong>  Is the labor market tight?  You bet. \nJob openings surged in March and are once again nearing the record high\nreached in January.  All of those new\nvacancies were in the private sector<\/em><\/strong> as the public sector openings\ndeclined.  The need for additional workers\nrose sharply in transportation and warehousing, health care, restaurants and\nreal estate.<\/em><\/strong>  With demand\nincreasing, firms continue to hold onto their workers as tightly as possible.<\/em><\/strong>  Layoffs dropped like a rock, as it makes\nlittle sense to cut workers if you cannot find replacements.  I guess anyone, almost regardless of the\nissues, is better than no one.  But to me\nthe\nmost impressive data in this report were the quit numbers.  You would think that in this sellers market,\nworkers would be moving around like crazy. \nThat just doesn\u2019t seem to be the case as the number of people quitting\ndeclined.  <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a separate report, CoreLogic indicated that home\nprices rose moderately in March, but the increase over the year continued to\ndecelerate. <\/em><\/strong> There are few metro areas where\nhousing price increases are either accelerating or even high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MARKETS AND\nFED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong>  You\nhave to hand it to the business community: \nDespite being on the wrong side of the tight labor market, firms are\nmanaging to keep from a major bidding war for workers and are still not losing\nworkers to competitors.<\/em><\/strong>  Yes,\ncompensation is rising decently, but it is no longer accelerating.  At the same time, companies are squeezing out\nmore output per worker.  This rise in\nproductivity has kept labor costs down and earnings up.  All of this is happening in a world where\ninformation flows freely and quickly.  <\/em><\/strong>Workers\nknow about openings yet they appear to be either reluctant to apply for them or\nunwilling to accept those offers. For the Fed, that has to be worrisome.  Inflation has moved back below target even as\nlabor markets are tightening further. \nWhat happens if the economy softens or even worse, falls into recession\nand the wage gains disappear?  One would\nthink that the Fed should lower rates<\/em><\/strong> under these circumstances, but\nthat would not make sense.  First\nof all, the economy is not weak and it is not clear that lower rates would\nactually improve growth.<\/em><\/strong>  Mortgage\nrates are extraordinarily low and it is housing supply that is the\nproblem.  Businesses investment hasn\u2019t\nsurged even after a tax cut that almost paid firms to invest.  So cutting rates is not likely to accelerate\ngrowth significantly. But it would put the Fed in a bind if the economy\nfaltered.  There are already few arrows\nin the Fed\u2019s interest rate quiver and lowering rates would empty it further.<\/em><\/strong>  Also, the impact of lowering rates is not\nlinear.  Does anyone really believe that\ngoing from one percent to zero would do anything, especially if the need to hit\nbottom occurs when the economy is collapsing? \nFed Chair Powell repeated that interest rate policy is the Fed\u2019s main\ntool and lowering rates now would limit that tool greatly.  What the Fed needs is more inflation, but it\nis largely powerless to accomplish that goal. \nTo use a phrase that former President George H.W. Bush liked to use, the\nFed is in \u201cdeep doo doo\u201d.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Openings: +346,000; Separations: -142,000; Quits: -38,000 IN A NUTSHELL:  \u201cJob openings are near record highs despite limited layoffs and quits.\u201d WHAT IT MEANS:  Is the labor market tight?  You bet.  Job openings surged in March and are once again nearing the record high reached in January.  All of those new vacancies were in … Continue reading March Job Openings (JOLTS report)<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1521"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1522,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1521\/revisions\/1522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}