{"id":1506,"date":"2019-04-23T15:44:11","date_gmt":"2019-04-23T19:44:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1506"},"modified":"2019-04-23T15:44:11","modified_gmt":"2019-04-23T19:44:11","slug":"march-housing-sales-and-april-philadelphia-fed-nonmanufacturing-survey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1506","title":{"rendered":"March Housing Sales and April Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KEY DATA:<\/strong> New Home Sales: +4.5%\/\nExisting Home Sales: -4.9%\/ Phila. Fed (NonMan.): -0.7 point; New Orders: +0.9\npoint<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IN A\nNUTSHELL:<\/strong>  \u201cThe housing market is wandering aimlessly and\nthat is hardly a sign of a strong economy.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT IT\nMEANS:<\/strong>  We get our initial look at first quarter\ngrowth on Friday, but regardless of what it comes out as there is little reason\nto think the economy is booming along<\/em><\/strong>. \nThis week\u2019s so-so numbers leading up to the GDP release were the housing\nsales data.  Today we got the new home sales\nnumbers and they were really good, at least when you consider where they had\nbeen.<\/em><\/strong>  Demand jumped in March to\na level not seen since November 2017.  It\nlooks like sales bottomed in October of last year and there has been a fairly\nsteady improvement since then.<\/em><\/strong> As for the details, a strong rise in the\nMidwest offset a sharp drop in the East. \nThere were solid gains in the South and West.  Sales prices firmed as inventories remained\nlow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, the National Association of Realtors\nindicated that existing home demand faded in March.<\/em><\/strong> The softening in sales was\nin every region. But the fall off in sales came after a sharp rise in February<\/em><\/strong>,\nso it is not clear what is going on with the existing home market.  The average sales pace for the first three\nmonths of the year was well below the pace posted in 2018, so it really cannot\nbe said that demand is improving. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maybe the clearest indication that the economy is in\ngood shape but growth is not re-accelerating could be seen in the Philadelphia\nFed\u2019s nonmanufacturing index.  It was\nlargely flat in April, but level was still quite solid.  Optimism remains high.  Indeed, a greater proportion of the\nrespondents indicated they thought that their firm\u2019s business conditions would\nimprove than said it would remain the same. \nFew expected they would see their own business suffer a reduction in\nactivity.  MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong>  First\nquarter growth looks like it came in near the same 2.2% pace that we saw in the\nfourth quarter.  The unknowns and likely\ndrivers of improved growth are inventories and trade.  Unintended inventories increases appear to\nhave occurred and those will have to be worked off.  The uncertainty over tariffs \u2013 and the hopes\nthat might be lifted \u2013 may have led to strange patterns in imports.  Regardless, whether the number is better than\nworse than forecast, the underlying pattern of growth remains near the 2% or so\ntrend rate.  That is consistent with a\nhousing market that is basically going nowhere. \nAs for investors, the focus seems to have returned to earnings, not\npolitics or economics and so far, the profits reports have been decent.  Meanwhile, back at the Fed, I suspect the\nmembers would be smart to keep their heads down, especially if growth comes in\nabove consensus.  With labor costs high,\nproductivity low and energy prices rising, inflation is not going to\ndecelerate.  Which raises the question:\nWhy did Chair Powell rush to hoist the white flag in December? <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: New Home Sales: +4.5%\/ Existing Home Sales: -4.9%\/ Phila. Fed (NonMan.): -0.7 point; New Orders: +0.9 point IN A NUTSHELL:  \u201cThe housing market is wandering aimlessly and that is hardly a sign of a strong economy.\u201d WHAT IT MEANS:  We get our initial look at first quarter growth on Friday, but regardless of … Continue reading March Housing Sales and April Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1506"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1506\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1507,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1506\/revisions\/1507"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}