{"id":1503,"date":"2019-04-18T12:43:51","date_gmt":"2019-04-18T16:43:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1503"},"modified":"2019-04-18T12:43:51","modified_gmt":"2019-04-18T16:43:51","slug":"march-retail-sales-leading-indicators-and-weekly-jobless-claims","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1503","title":{"rendered":"March Retail Sales, Leading Indicators and Weekly Jobless Claims"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Sales: +1.6%; Vehicles:\n+3.1%; Gasoline: +3.5%\/ LEI: +0.4%\/ Claims: -5,000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IN A\nNUTSHELL:<\/strong>  \u201cThe economy appears to have thrown off some\nof the winter lethargy and is growing again at a decent pace.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT IT\nMEANS:<\/strong>  When in doubt, panic.  At least that seems to be the motto of those\nwho worry about each and every data point released, such as most investors.  Even the Fed, in particular Chair Powell,\nseemed to have subscribed to that approach. \nBut as more level-headed economists argued at the end of last year, the\nmarket crash made no sense when the fundamentals of the economy were analyzed\nand now we are seeing that a \u201cwait and see\u201d approach was the right way to\ngo.  Consumer spending rebounded sharply\nin March led by a jump in vehicle demand. <\/em><\/strong> We need some time to see if the March vehicle\nsales were just a one-month wonder, but at least purchases didn\u2019t fall off the\ncliff.  There was also a major increase\nin gasoline sales, but those were largely price driven.  Still, there was only major component, sporting\ngoods\/hobbies\/musical instruments, etc. that declined and that was\nmodestly.  <\/em><\/strong>Over the year, non-inflation\nadjusted sales were up 3.6%, a decent gain, though nothing special given the\nroughly 2% inflation rate.  With\nconsumption rebounding, first quarter growth is likely to come in a little\nbetter than expected and it sets up a solid second quarter number.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board\u2019s Leading Economic Indicators\nindex jumped in March<\/em><\/strong>, led by improving labor markets, expectations and financial markets. The Coincident and Lagging Indices rose\nmodestly.  Still, as the report noted, \u201cthe\ntrend in the US LEI continues to moderate, suggesting that growth in the US\neconomy is likely to decelerate toward its long term potential of about 2\npercent by year end.\u201d  So, don\u2019t look for\nrobust growth coming anytime soon.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jobless claims, incredibly, continue to drop.<\/em><\/strong>  The level is almost incomprehensible, given\nthe size of the labor force and the dynamism of the economy.<\/em><\/strong>  There seems to be almost no turnover.  What makes this so weird is that wage gains\nhave stabilized despite what appears to be a drum-tight labor market.<\/em><\/strong>MARKETS AND FED\nPOLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong>The\nFed has tried to give itself an out by reiterating that a rebound in growth\ncould make them rethink their stance.  I\nam not saying growth is so strong that the Fed will actually do that, but it is\nclearly not so soft as it believed it to be when it suddenly decided it would\ndo nothing this year.<\/em><\/strong>  First\nquarter GDP growth should be in the 2% range but could be higher if inventories\nincrease rapidly.  That would help the\nfirst quarter. But if, as believed, those additions to stock were unintended,\nit would pull down second quarter growth when firms push back orders so they\ncan whittle down their excessive inventories. \nThat points the need to look at the trend in growth, not just the data\non one quarter.  Of course, I raise the\npoint of not giving too much credence to any one number constantly and that\nwarning goes unheeded, but I will keep on trying.  As for investors, they should like today\u2019s\nreports though a certain report may dominate the discussion.   \n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Sales: +1.6%; Vehicles: +3.1%; Gasoline: +3.5%\/ LEI: +0.4%\/ Claims: -5,000 IN A NUTSHELL:  \u201cThe economy appears to have thrown off some of the winter lethargy and is growing again at a decent pace.\u201d WHAT IT MEANS:  When in doubt, panic.  At least that seems to be the motto of those who worry about … Continue reading March Retail Sales, Leading Indicators and Weekly Jobless Claims<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1503"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1503\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1504,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1503\/revisions\/1504"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}