{"id":1494,"date":"2019-04-04T11:08:19","date_gmt":"2019-04-04T15:08:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1494"},"modified":"2019-04-04T11:08:19","modified_gmt":"2019-04-04T15:08:19","slug":"march-layoff-announcements-and-weekly-jobless-claims","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1494","title":{"rendered":"March Layoff Announcements and Weekly Jobless Claims"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Layoff Announcements:\n60,587; Claims: -10,000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IN A\nNUTSHELL:<\/strong>  \u201cAre layoffs up or down?  The answer seems to be yes.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT IT\nMEANS:<\/strong>  Tomorrow\u2019s jobs numbers are important given\nthat we had a huge rise in January and barely eked on out in February, so it is\nnot clear where the job market stands.<\/em><\/strong> \nConsequently, we are looking for other hints at what might be\nhappening.  Unfortunately, the\ndata have been all over the place and today\u2019s numbers only add to the\nconfusion.  First there is the\nChallenger, Gray and Christmas monthly layoff announcement report, which\nindicated that cut backs are continuing at a high pace.<\/em><\/strong>  In previous months, the large number of job\ncut notices were driven by activity one industry, such as retail, energy or\nindustrial goods.  In March, though, the\nannouncements were spread across a wide variety of industries. First\nquarter announcements were the highest since the third quarter of 2015.<\/em><\/strong>\nRestructuring, not bankruptcy is the major reason that has been given for this\nyear\u2019s layoff announcements, which to me points to softer economic growth.  The details in this report seem to be\npointing to growing weakness in the labor market.  <\/em><\/strong>Keep in mind that these are\nannouncements, not actual layoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While layoff notices may be rising, actual layoffs\nor job losses don\u2019t appear to be on the rise. \nWeekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level since December 1969.<\/em><\/strong>  To put things in perspective, the labor force\nin December 1969 was half the size of where it is now.  That means the current level is at a historic\nlow, when adjusted for the size of the market.MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong>Well,\nwe have surging layoff announcements and record low unemployment claims.  The two don\u2019t seem like they should go\ntogether, but here they are.<\/em><\/strong> \nThis inconsistency is seen in many of the numbers and my explanation is that we are\nat a point of inflection where the overall economic trend is changing.  That would account for at least some of the\nvolatility and contradictory nature of the data.<\/em><\/strong>It would also point to a slowdown not a\ncrash.<\/em><\/strong>  Will tomorrow\u2019s numbers\nprovide some clarity?  I doubt it.  First, what is a weak number?  I am at 168,000 new jobs.  To me, that is strong, given the lack of\nreadily available, qualified workers.  It\nis also large enough to keep the unemployment rate slowly trending downward,\nthough I don\u2019t think that happened in March. \n Others, though, will be\ndisappointed if my estimate is anywhere near what the Bureau of Labor\nStatistics reports, especially given that we had monthly gains in excess of\n200,000 last year.  The warning, then, is that any one\nnumber really means little, as it must be viewed in context.  For payrolls, start with a three-month moving\naverage and then compare it to what is needed to reduce the unemployment rate. <\/em><\/strong> For me, that means anything in the 125,000 to\n175,000 range is good.  I doubt the\nmarkets would agree with me.  That range,\nthough, would be enough for the Fed to do nothing.  \n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Layoff Announcements: 60,587; Claims: -10,000 IN A NUTSHELL:  \u201cAre layoffs up or down?  The answer seems to be yes.\u201d WHAT IT MEANS:  Tomorrow\u2019s jobs numbers are important given that we had a huge rise in January and barely eked on out in February, so it is not clear where the job market stands.  … Continue reading March Layoff Announcements and Weekly Jobless Claims<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1494"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1494\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1495,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1494\/revisions\/1495"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}