{"id":1476,"date":"2019-03-14T11:35:57","date_gmt":"2019-03-14T15:35:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1476"},"modified":"2019-03-14T11:35:57","modified_gmt":"2019-03-14T15:35:57","slug":"february-import-and-export-prices-january-new-home-sales-and-weekly-jobless-claims","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/?p=1476","title":{"rendered":"February Import and Export Prices, January New Home Sales and Weekly Jobless Claims"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KEY DATA:<\/strong> Import Prices: +0.6%;\nNonfuel: 0%; Export Prices: +0.6%; Farm: +0.3%\/ New Home Sales: -6.9%; Prices:\n-3.8%; Claims: +6,000<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IN A\nNUTSHELL:<\/strong>  \u201cCold weather and the government shutdown\ndidn\u2019t help the housing market at all.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT IT\nMEANS:<\/strong>  The data just don\u2019t seem to be getting\nbetter, though it is good that inflation is going nowhere.  Import prices jumped in February but that was\ndue largely to a surge in petroleum product costs.<\/em><\/strong>  The increase was known but the extent of the\nrise was a little more than expected.  There\nwere also higher prices for non-vehicle consumer products.  Meanwhile, food and capital goods costs were\ndown.  Basically, the costs of imported\ngoods are not putting a lot of pressure on consumer buying power.<\/em><\/strong>  On the export side, the battered farmer got a\nbreak as prices rose.  Over the year,\nthey are still off a little.  U.S.\nexporters in just about all industries managed to push through price\nincreases.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What happens when a bitter winter and a government\npartial shutdown get together?  The\neconomy tends to go into a slowdown and that is what happened for the most part\nin January.  New home sales tanked.  <\/em><\/strong>It is hard to visit a construction site when there\nis snow or it is so cold you don\u2019t want to step outside.  In large parts of the nation, that is what\nhappened.  And then there was the hit to\nconfidence that the shutdown created, which didn\u2019t help either.  So it should not surprise anyone that new\nhome sales were off sharply.  Still, the\nyear has started off on a weak note and prices are falling, another sign of\nsoftness.<\/em><\/strong> While inventory is building, it is due to the slowing sales\nas well as the additional homes for sale.    \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jobless claims rose last week and while the level\nremains low, it is beginning to look as if the historic lows are behind us.<\/em><\/strong>  That may indicate a modest softening in the\njob market.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

MARKETS AND\nFED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:<\/strong>  Modest\ninflation means the Fed can watch the economic fundamentals more closely and\nthere are few signs the economy is picking up the steam that it lost at the end\nof last year.<\/em><\/strong>  New home sales\nwere soft and most indicators point to a disappointing first quarter consumer spending\nnumber.  <\/em><\/strong>And there is no reason\nto think businesses will suddenly decide to use their windfall tax gains to\nspend like crazy on machinery, equipment, building or software.  So, I have no idea what would drive a surge in\nequity prices, other than the belief trade will come around.  Tariffs have been imposed but the trade\ndeficit widened sharply even with China<\/em><\/strong>, so unless we suddenly embrace\nfree trade, I don\u2019t really see how that sector will help significantly.  As I keep saying, a recession may not be in\nsight, but neither is strong growth.<\/em><\/strong>\n\nI am leaving for the airport to go on my annual\nfather\/son Phillies spring training trip. \nIt\u2019s nice to know I don\u2019t have to potentially fly a 737 Max8 to\nClearwater.  The flight should be a lot\nless stressful.  \n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEY DATA: Import Prices: +0.6%; Nonfuel: 0%; Export Prices: +0.6%; Farm: +0.3%\/ New Home Sales: -6.9%; Prices: -3.8%; Claims: +6,000 IN A NUTSHELL:  \u201cCold weather and the government shutdown didn\u2019t help the housing market at all.\u201d WHAT IT MEANS:  The data just don\u2019t seem to be getting better, though it is good that inflation is … Continue reading February Import and Export Prices, January New Home Sales and Weekly Jobless Claims<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-indicators"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1476"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1476\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1477,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1476\/revisions\/1477"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/naroffeconomics.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}