KEY DATA: Consumption: 0%; Income: +0.4%/ Durables: +3%; Excluding Aircraft: 0%; Capital Spending: +1.3%; New Homes: +10.7%/ Jobless Claims: -12,000
IN A NUTSHELL: “The economy is hardly a turkey so the Fed, which is fed up with low rates, will likely tighten the economy’s belt a little next month.”
WHAT IT MEANS: The day before Thanksgiving is when everyone dumps their data so they can get out early and today was no exception. Most of the reports were decent. Let’s start with the consumer. Households’ balance sheets are better as income is rising solidly. Most encouraging was a sharp increase in wages and salaries. The tight labor market, which got even tighter in October as claims were about as low as they get, is finally causing firms to raise compensation more rapidly. However, people aren’t out shopping until they drop or even until they are tired. They are spending money, but not at a great pace. The weakest segment of was durable goods demand, which is really nothing to worry about. October vehicle sales were one of the highest on record so we know consumers are more than willing to buy big-ticket items. Indeed, the added burden of monthly vehicle loan payments may be a reason that retail sales have not taken off despite the rise in incomes. But households are not stretched as the savings rate continues to edge up. We are approaching the 1990s savings rate. On the inflation side, prices rose modestly and when food and energy were excluded, they were flat.
Manufacturing has been a soft spot in the economy, but that may be changing at least a little. Durable goods orders rose sharply, but most of that was for civilian and defense aircraft. Still, orders for computers, communications equipment and machinery were up. Again, there was one very positive component of the report: Business capital goods orders rose strongly and it looks like the cut backs in investment may have ended.
New home sales surged in October – not really. There was a sharp rise in signed contracts but that was only because the September number was revised down. The October level was okay but not particularly great. This report, though, was weird. Demand in the Northeast jumped by 135% but fell slightly in the West. But the strangest number was medium prices: They fell, yes fell, by 6% from the October 2014 level. That makes no sense at all.
MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Today’s data did nothing but provide the Fed with more cover to raise rates in December. The only potential speed left is the November jobs report, which will be released on Friday, December 4th. But that number would have to be almost catastrophic – i.e., negative – for the Fed to get worried. The markets are expecting a rate hike so a move shouldn’t cause that great a reaction. With growth exceeding potential, with wages rising more solidly and with businesses starting to invest again, there is lot for the economy to be thankful for. So, on that note let me say:
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!